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At the Starting Gate
Account
Management What, When to Trade
Taking Profits
Now it is time to apply
what you have learned in the previous chapters, putting it all together for
real, live trading action. But first you need to decide on your overall trading
plan: How much you have to trade, what to trade, and how often.
Account Management
The first thing you need
to learn is how to manage your account, and the methods of choice depend upon
the size of your trading power (trading power is the total amount you can trade
at any one time, which includes margin trading, if any).
If your account is $10,000
or more, lean more towards direct stock trading instead of options, because
puts and calls contain extra risk that is not necessary to take if you have
this amount of trading power. If you want to trade options, then limit such
trading to no more than half of your account, and then allocate 10% of that
portion for each option trade.
For instance, if your
account size is $12,000, then use $6,000 for options, and 10% of $6,000 (or
$600) for each option trade.
If your account is less
than $10,000, you might want to consider more options trading and/or “penny”
stocks (stocks between $2 and $10). Otherwise, it might be too difficult to
overcome broker commissions unless you allocate one half to all of your account
on a single trade. But if you trade options, trade no more than 10% of your
account value for each trade, and never deviate from that plan under any
circumstance. For penny stocks, allocate ½ to ¼ of your trading power.
For very small accounts
(between $500 and $2,000), you practically have no other choice than to trade
options. With small amounts, you can’t overcome broker commissions trading
stock unless you have a very large winner, and only with well-executed options
can you amass gains large enough to do so. When trading options for small
accounts, allocate 10% or $200, whichever is greater.
Stops
Never let any trade sink
below a predetermined threshold---ever. If necessary, set a stop-loss order
right after you execute a trade (always use stop-market, never stop-limit). If
you don’t cut your losses at a reasonable level, you will never succeed with
trading.
What is a “reasonable”
loss? That depends on your trading style, your time horizon and your tolerance
for risk. But a good rule of thumb is to cut stock trading losses at no more
than –5% (I cut them at 2 to 3 percent), and options at –25%. If you let your
trades sink lower than that, you will get into too much trouble, even to the
point where you are unable to recover. I simply cannot emphasize this rule
enough.
Don’t get caught in the
“…but the stock is going to come back” syndrome. Never hang on and hope. The
reason you must cut your losses is because you be unable to overcome them with
your winners if you let them plummet too far. If you’re winners are typically 3
to 5 percent, then you mustn’t let your losers run much lower than the same
adverse amount. It is simple arithmetic.
Making the Trade
Each online broker is different,
but they usually have similar order types, which are:
- Market order.
This is when you place an order to buy or sell at the current market price.
Essentially, a market order accepts the ask price at the moment a buy
order is executed, or the bid price
when your sell order is executed. Remember that all stocks have two price
quotes at any given moment: a bid and an ask; a market order merely executes
at those prices, whatever they may be.
- Limit order.
This is when you place a buy or sell order at a specified price. On the buy
side, your broker will only execute the order if it can be bought at the price
you specify, and not a penny higher. On the sell side, your broker will only
execute the order if it can be sold at the price you specify, and not a penny
less.
- Stop order. There
are two types of stop orders, although they might be called by different names
between brokers. One is a stop order (sometimes referred to as a stop
market order), and the other is a stop limit order. A stop order
is sometimes called a stop loss, because it is mainly used to limit
your losses. In a sense, a stop order is the opposite of a limit order, because
a stop (sell) order executes if the price falls down to the price you
have specified, while a limit (sell) order executes if the price goes up
to your specified price. The difference between stop and stop limit
is that a stop will execute at the market price, while stop limit executes
it no lower than the price you have specified. Stop orders are discussed in
more detail later in this section.
Market
Versus Limit
One aspect of trading that
newcomers often struggle with is when to place a market order versus a limit
order, and this subject deserves some discussion. Although there are some exceptions,
the basic rule of thumb is the following.
Use a market order when
you have a compelling reason to execute the trade immediately. Otherwise, use
a limit order.
The only real difference
between a market and a limit order is that a market order is nearly guaranteed
to be executed immediately. The downside to this is that you may not get the
optimum price, and under certain circumstances, the price might deviate substantially
from what you were expecting.
For instance,
let's say that you want to buy 300 shares of a stock that shows the following
quote at the time you place a market order.
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Last
trade: 17.50
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Bid:
17.25
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Ask:
17.30
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According
to the quote, you would expect to buy the stock at the market price of $17.30,
or the current "ask" price. To your surprise, your order executes
100 shares at $17.30, and 200 more at $17.60. What just happened?
In this case, there were
only 100 shares for sale at $17.30, which your order executed. But since you
specified a market order, the next price up the "ask" list is $17.60,
and it was promptly executed. Had you placed a limit order for $17.30, your
order would have been partially filled at $17.30, but you would not have been
"forced" to buy any more at a higher price. The worst that would happen
is that you would have only bought 100 shares instead of 300, but you would
have bought them at the price you specified.
So, why wouldn't you always
use a limit order to avoid executing a trade at an undesirable price? The answer
is urgency, which is the only time you should really use a market order.
For example, suppose you
enter a trade for a fairly large amount of shares, and for some reason, the
trade turns against you and the stock is heading south. If you try to get out
of the trade with a limit order, it might never execute, or only partially execute,
and you could end up getting stuck with deeper losses than you are willing to
absorb. In this case, it is probably wise to jettison the trade with a market
order, because it may be better to get out relatively unscathed, even at undesirable
prices, rather than risk losing crippling amounts "waiting" for some
specified price.
On the buy side, the one
situation where I will use a market order is when the stock is soaring rapidly
off of a sharp bounce (on an AM gap-down, for instance), and it is doubtful
that a limit order could get filled. Although limit orders are the "safer"
way to go, if there is a compelling reason to execute a buy order ASAP, then
market orders are the way to go.
In all other non-urgent
cases, always use a limit order.
Limit
Orders at Bid and Ask
Some people have the idea
that a limit order is used only to get a different, or "better" price
than where a market order would execute. This is not the case at all, and in
fact, I will often place a limit order right at the same price that I would
get if it were a market order.
The reason you want to
do this is simply to guarantee that your price doesn't "slip." The
above example of buying a stock at the "ask" price of $17.30 is a
good example. While you might get the same price of $17.30 with a market order,
using a limit order guarantees that you will buy the stock at $17.30 and not
a penny higher. True, your full order might not execute as fast as a market
order, but that is the whole point—you only go for market when you must
get in or out immediately.
Systematic
and Consistent Approach
By systematic and consistent
approach means that you apply the same strategies and financial disciplines
consistently, each and every day. While this may seem obvious at first, you
would be surprised how many traders make life miserable by changing the rules
as they go.
For instance, an enthusiastic,
opportunistic beginner decides to make a large trade on a trade that looks almost
certain, and in fact, the confidence level is such that the trader's entire
stake is placed on this one trade. Unfortunately, it heads south and loses 2%,
but the trader (correctly) bails out before the losses run too steeply. The
next trade, equally enticing, is also made with 100% of the stake, and it basically
breaks even (with a tiny loss due to broker commissions), for a 0.1% loss.
The next day, this trader
thinks things over and decides that placing the whole stake on a single trade
involves too much risk, so the next trade is made with only 25% of the stake.
This time, the trade goes well, and the trade cashes in a whopping 5% gain in
less than 10 minutes.
At first glance, it appears
that this trader has been very successful. After all, the early record is one
loser, one almost-break-even, and one 5% winner. But I can tell you from experience
that this type of pattern will result in financial disaster. Why is that?
This ambitious trader committed
one of the cardinal sins, which is inconsistent allocations. Sure, the
third trade was a winner, but it was only 1/4 of the total stake! If you look
at this carefully, you can see what is wrong with this picture. Assuming that
the trading stake was $10,000, consider the following two results—the first
being the result of trading 100% for two trades, then trading 25% for the third,
and the other trading 100% for all three trades.
| Results
from Inconsistent Allocations |
| Trade
Amount |
Result |
| $10,000 |
-$200 |
| $10,000 |
-$10 |
| $2,500 |
+$125 |
Net Gain: |
-$85 |
|
| Trade
Amount |
Result |
| $10,000 |
-$200 |
| $10,000 |
-$10 |
| $10,000 |
+$500 |
Net gain: |
+$290 |
|
You can immediately see
the difference between inconsistent versus consistent trading allocations. Under
both scenarios, the same trades were made, yet the second scenario made a $290
profit, while the first one lost $85. The point is not that the trader should
have necessarily placed 100% of his or her stake on every trade, but rather
that the traded amounts should have remained consistent (the same, proportional
results would have been obtained had the trader used, say, 50% of the stake
for every trade, or 80% on each one, etc.).
A common trap that a trader
can fall into is to become influenced by the "certainty" of the trade.
Using the above example, it would not have been that unusual for this trader
to lighten up on the third trade because it was "not as sure as the first
two." You have to fight that temptation at all costs, and remember rule
#1 about trade allocations:
There is no such thing
as a trade that is more "certain" than any other trade. You must assume
that each trade has exactly the same chance of success as any other trade, and
make consistent allocations accordingly.
Another common error is
to "back off" on one's allocation size because the market appears
to be poor, or because one is on a losing streak, etc. This is equally as foolish,
because you really can't second-guess such things. If nothing else, if trading
conditions are poor, then don't trade at all, or make less trades, or perhaps
cut your losses more quickly than you normally would. But do not deviate from
your standard allocation, ever.
Even if one trade is technically
more certain than others, you must still assume the same principle, because
neither you, nor I, nor anyone else is smart enough to every really know. Consistency
is your friend; inconsistency is your enemy. Don't ever change your allocation
based on a "sure thing" or any other such consideration!
Paper Trading
If you are a beginning
trader, it is highly recommended that you paper trade before you venture in the
lion’s den with real money. Not only will you get your feet wet, but paper
trading will let you discover your inherent weaknesses before you put your
hard-earned money at risk.
By paper trade is meant,
of course, that you trade “on paper” and not for real money. The best way to do
this is to use the free trading simulator that came with this book (see
Appendix A: Trading Simulator). You will find that this emulator is as close as
you can get to the real thing without using real money (I find the same emotions
are triggered with this emulator as in actual trading). It was designed for
this purpose.
Trade with the emulator,
starting with the same account size that you intend to use with your broker,
and give it your best shot. Once you build your confidence, go for the real
McCoy.
Stop Orders
A stop order is used mostly
to stop losses from worsening. Most brokers offer at least two variations
of the stop order, one is called a stop order (or sometimes stop
market), and the other is called stop limit. Both stop orders require
that you specify the price at which you want to sell your shares. The difference
between these two is that a regular stop order will sell at the market
price, once the stock hits your specified level, while a stop limit sells
at your price and only at your price.
As a rule, you should never
use stop limit, because if the stock has hit your bailout level at all, it will
behoove you to get out ASAP. For this, you want to sell at the market price,
because if you set a stop limit, you might not get your stop order filled at
all, and you could suffer far greater losses than you anticipated.
Stop
Levels
The rule for where to set
your stop is simple:
Never
lose more than 4% to 7% on any one trade, ever.
In bad markets or otherwise
risky trades, you should cut your losses even sooner (around 2%).
The reason it is so imperative
that you cut your losses between 2% and 7% is because you will only win on a
little more than half of your trades. Assuming that you make 2 to 5% on winners,
then you won't ever pull ahead unless you cut your losses short.
There are two ways to limit
your losses: either with an actual stop order, or to apply the discipline to
do a "mental" stop.
Physical
versus Mental Stops
Many traders firmly believe
that setting a stop order through your broker "tips your hand" to
other traders, and can affect you adversely. What they mean by this is that
a sell order through your broker will cause your shares to be posted for everyone
else to see, and if an unscrupulous market maker can "walk" the price
down on the stock, somehow or another, and take you out by picking up the cheap
shares (a market maker is a person or a firm in charge of matching buyers
and sellers on the exchange).
Personally, I believe this
rarely happens, if at all. But I do believe that this fear comes from the fact
that it can look like the stock has been manipulated to "take you
out". All it takes is one large sell order from someone, at market price,
to take you and everyone else out in one fell swoop, and this creates the illusion
that you have "tipped your hand" and let other traders exploit your
situation.
For instance, suppose you
place a stop order with your broker at $19.98 (which means that you are unwilling
to let your trade slip any lower than that price). Unbeknownst to you, the current
"bid" prices for a stock appear on the exchange as follows (with your
order showing in bold).
| Bid
price |
Bid
Size (shares) |
| 20.25 |
100 |
| 20.10 |
200 |
| 20.00 |
1500 |
| 19.98
|
200 |
| 19.95 |
500 |
Now, suppose
some other trader decides to unload 2,000 shares of the stock at "market"
(which means that he or she is willing to sell at the "bid" price,
regardless of what it is). To fill a 2,000 share order, the price has to be
taken all the way down to $19.98 (100 + 200 + 1500 + 200 = 2,000 shares).
Lo and behold, the stock "spikes down" and you have been taken out.
Hence, the illusion that you just tipped your hand, and a market maker has
taken you out, has been created.
| Bid
price |
Bid
Size (shares) |
| 20.25 |
100 |
| 20.10 |
+
200 |
| 20.00 |
+
1500 |
| 19.98 |
+
200 = 2,000 shares |
| 19.95 |
500 |
Still, some
traders still believe that it is a good practice to avoid stop orders altogether,
just in case it really does reveal sufficient information for someone to take
advantage of it. If so, I would recommend the following rules with regards
to stop orders.
- If you are able to keep
your eye on your trade at every moment, use a mental stop. This is
basically what it implies—you watch the price, and if it reaches a level
where it is time to jettison the trade, you sell the stock with a market order.
- If you will be away
from your computer, or if you won't be keeping an eye on your stock every
moment, place a physical (real) stop order. Always use a regular stop, never
a stop limit order.
Mental
Stops
One caution about mental
stop orders, however, and that is they require more self-discipline than you
might imagine. "Hope" is inherently present in almost all human endeavors,
and trading is no exception. If you rely exclusively on mental stops, you may
find "hope" getting the better of you, and you change your mind and
let the stock sink lower than where you would have liked to sell. Even worse,
after the trade is showing a substantial loss, the temptation will be to hold
on even longer for a turnaround, because the stock is now so low that you "can't
sell now!". This results in a suicide play, and you have to avoid such
inappropriate trading at all costs.
Hence, if you use mental
stops, it is absolutely imperative that you (a) Choose the stop price beforehand,
and (b) Stick to your stop, come hell or high water.
Trading Style: What, How, When
Once you’re ready to go
for the gold, you need to formulate a trading plan. Specifically, the type of
trading you will do (options versus stock, day trading versus longer-term,
etc.). For this, you need to determine how much time you can realistically
dedicate to trading, both during market hours and off hours.
Category One: You are
able to watch the market most or all of the trading session (between 9:30AM and 4PM-eastern time). If this is
your situation, your style of trading depends on your account size, but
generally speaking, you should be willing to implement every strategy outlined
in this book when the conditions permit you do to so.
One consideration is a
securities rule regarding the “pattern day trader.” Brokers are required to
restrict your account if you are flagged as a day trader and you have less than
$25,000 of account value. A “day trader” is defined as one who buys and sells
the same stock on the same day, and does so more than 3 times in a 5-day
period. In other words, once you make more than 3 day trades during the week,
your broker will flag you as a pattern day trader, and your account could be
subject to restrictions. The type of restrictions vary between brokers, but
typically, they remove margin availability and/or disallow any trading for a
few days.
Hence, if your account is
less than $25,000, you might not be able to day trade freely. Either you need
to restrict your day trades to three times (max) per week, or you need to specialize
in overnight holds.
Some excellent overnight
holding strategies are the Lunar Bounce, the Breakout, and in some cases, the
Staircase to Heaven. The Breakout, by definition, is often a longer-term hold,
although this strategy is not advised during bear markets or downturns. For
bearish sessions, consider the Lunar Bounce, which is always an overnight hold
by its very nature.
Category Two: Can only
trade part-time (able to watch for
a while in the morning and/or in the late afternoon). If this is your
situation, there are only a few strategies you should use.
If you can watch your
trades in the late afternoon, consider the Lunar Bounce (picking up a stock at
its session low). This works particularly well when the session was very
negative, and when the market itself hits its low of the day at the closing
bell. For the Lunar Bounce, you can trade either direct stocks or options,
keeping in mind that options take a few minutes in the morning to stabilize.
The caveat to the Lunar
Bounce is that you must be able to watch your trade the first thing in the
(next) morning, because that is the whole point of the strategy: Play the
session low, then sell on the AM bounce.
If you can only watch the
market in the morning, then you have two possible strategies: The DMGD (Dumb
Money Gap Down), or the Breakout. The DMGD is a day trading technique, because
you will be in and out within the first 30 minutes. If this is your preferred
style of trading, then you might devote all of your trading to this technique.
Keep in mind, however,
that the DMGD works best when the market itself gaps down. If the market is set
to open higher, then gap downs are harder to find. Hence, in bull markets, you
may find yourself trading very little for many days in a row.
The Breakout is a
longer-term strategy, however, and this should be your trading style of choice
if you are averse to day trading and prefer more of a buy-and-hold approach.
Playing the Breakout is rather easy, provided that the market conditions are
favorable.
First, you keep a watch
list of all stocks (in your price range) that are forming a narrow, sideways
base, or a narrow trading range. Ideally, the stock should be hovering near the
upper end of its recent trading range. Then after the first 30 minutes of the trading
session, check and see which one has broken through its upper range. If it is
accompanied by relatively strong volume, then that is your play. Set a
reasonable stop-loss price, and let in run for the remainder of the session or
longer.
The one caveat to trading
the Breakout is that stocks tend to fail in bear markets or downturns. If the
market seems bearish, it is far too risky to play a Breakout, and you will have
to stay clear of it and wait for another day.
Category 3: You have no
time to watch the market at all
(you can only place trade orders at night, during off hours).
First of all, I find that
there isn’t any such thing as an absolute inability to watch the market, even
for a few minutes, as most people could “sneak a peak” during the day, say to
check on their positions, perhaps to adjust a stop order, etc. But if you
really can’t spend even a little bit of time, then your only choice is to
implement moonlight trading.
Moonlight trading is a phrase that I coined for trading during off
hours, using stop-buy orders for potential Breakouts. This method is discussed
in detail in the chapter, Longer Term Trading.
Keep in mind that
moonlight trading is only workable during strong markets, or at least mild bull
markets. Never try to moonlight trade during downturns or corrections, because
your position will receive too much selling pressure, especially when it
flashes a little strength. During negative market periods, you have to either
stay out altogether, or find time to implement the part-time strategies as
outlined in When Time is Scarce.
Taking Profits
One of the most difficult
aspects to trading is knowing when to sell. While most beginners learn quickly
when to cut losses, or even when to buy into a trade, it is usually more difficult
to know when to take your gains on a winning trade.
Unfortunately, there is
no fixed (or "scientific") formula for this, such as "take gains
when they reach 3%" or "take gains when you have hit your price target,"
because I have found that none of these methods work. Each trade is different,
all situations are not the same, and the market itself changes its patterns
from day to day.
For instance, on some days,
the market loves to produce double-digit winners of 15%, 20% or more. On other
days, you are lucky to scrap for 1% on anything. So you will quickly learn that
you can use neither price targets, nor percent thresholds, nor any other rigid
system to take profits.
Instead, the solution is
to recognize the primary reason why it is so difficult to take the gains in
the first place.
Demons
Within
The main problem with selling
a winning trade is that most people struggle with demons within. These
are your classic emotions that are, unfortunately, inherent with most financial
matters in life, especially trading. Various factors hinder sound judgment about
taking profits, namely:
- Hope. It is human
nature to hope for more and more gains, so one is often unwilling to take
acceptable gains that are presented to them. A cousin to this emotion is one
of gambling, or "letting it ride" for more. If this aspect is out
of control, you can throw away many otherwise decent profits.
- Greed. It is
also human nature to want higher returns than you are getting, even when they
are already excellent. You must control this emotion, or you will throw away
some good wins.
- Fear. This is
the opposite of the other two (above), as this emotion will make you sell
too soon, denying yourself the gains you should have had. This is when you
sell at tiny gains out of fear that the stock will turn tail and you will
lose your hard-fought, yet minuscule profits. Somewhere between this and the
other extremes (greed and hope) there is a happy medium that you will have
to learn.
- Denial. It is
not uncommon to be in "denial" when an otherwise profitable trade
starts going south. The other two factors (above) play into this, as one hopes
the stock will "come back," and the greed that makes you want more
than the current gains. What usually happens is that an otherwise profitable
position gives back all of its gains, and then some, and you will end up kicking
yourself for no reason. If a profitable trade starts turning on you, take
the gains!
As if these demons were
not enough, it doesn't help if you sell for a pretty good return, only to watch
the stock take off and soar into the clouds. For whatever reason, this will
often occur, and it does nothing but fuel the demons of hope and greed. Your
best bet is to ignore it, be happy with your returns, and move on. You do not
have a crystal ball, so you could not have possibly known that the stock would
fly so much higher after you sold.
Control
The only way I have found
to control the demons in the profit-taking process is to have your own personal
set of sell rules that work for you, and you stick to those rules come hell
or high water. To illustrate this, I will share what my sell rules are for most
of my trades.
- Once I am happy with
the gains on a trade, I will hold the stock as long as it continues to move
higher, and sell immediately on any sign of a pullback. I am usually "happy"
with gains when they exceed 2%. Once they get past that, I like to watch it
like a hawk, and sell at the first sign of trouble. Sometimes that happens
right away, other times the stock continues to rise far beyond my wildest
imagination. But I find this is that happy medium between fear and hope that
works well for me.
- If the stock quickly
surges for a windfall, I will sell unconditionally, immediately. For quick
trading, I define a windfall as a gain of 4% or more. Remember that I am referring
to quick gains, in less than 30 minutes. If the stock runs up to 4%
very slowly, I apply the rule above—I watch it until it starts pulling
back. But if the stock spike up like a bat out of hell, I just sell and don't
try to second-guess anything else. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth!
- If the trade struggles
or goes sideways for a while, I dump it as "dead money" if there
are little or no gains, otherwise I wait for a tiny spike upward and then
sell. I usually allow about an hour of sideways trading before making this
decision.
- If a profitable trade
is hitting a resistance level, I will usually sell. A resistance level is
a price in which the stock just can't seem to get through. Often (but not
always), it is an even number, like $10 or $20, and I believe that is because
even-number boundaries are psychological to other traders and they sell at
those round numbers.
Your sell rules should
probably be along the same line as those above, but you can modify them according
to your own preferences, risk tolerance, etc. But there is one general rule
that I think applies to everyone, and it is hard to go wrong with this one:
Generally, take gains
when you are happy with them.
This may sound too simplistic,
but it is the #1 rule that I apply. At the end of the day, your best approach
is to exiting a trade is when you are satisfied with the gains that your trade
has made. You don't have to be ecstatic, or be thrilled with a windfall, you
just have to be happy with the profit your trade has returned. (And, if the
stock takes off higher, you remind yourself that you just made a nice profit,
and it could have been much worse).
Half
Positions
Another thing you can experiment
with is the half position strategy. This is when you sell half of your
shares when your trade has shown good profit, and let the other half ride a
little longer. If nothing else, this handles that infamous "stock taking
off" phenomenon after you sell.
To do so, however, you
need to have a large enough position to make selling half worth your while,
because you have to contend with paying extra commissions. But if I have a fairly
large trade (say, 1000 shares or more), I will often sell half of shares, or
maybe 2/3, then see what the remaining shares do. If they struggle or begin
to slide back, I dump them; otherwise, I let them ride for even higher gains.
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